Trona, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

504
FXUS65 KVEF 060908
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
208 AM PDT Tue May 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms continue today and tonight,
bringing periods of moderate rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty
winds. Warmer and drier conditions return once the system exits.
High temperatures will be well above average by this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight.

One more day of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is on
tap before the system exits the area. As the center of the main low
moves east into New Mexico, a secondary low dives south through the
Great Basin. This feature will support additional shower and
thunderstorm development through today and tonight. The greatest
moisture will be in Lincoln, Clark, eastern San Bernardino, and
Mohave counties, with the highest PWATS in the 200 to 250 percent
range (0.8 to 1.0 inch) along the Colorado River Valley. High
resolution guidance shows isolated to scattered cell development
shifting from Lincoln county this morning to Clark and northern
Mohave counties this afternoon. Models also show CAPE values between
500 to 1000 J/kg and the strongest outflow winds in the 30 to 40 mph
range.

More widespread bands of precipitation develop in San Bernardino and
southern Mohave counties in the evening and overnight as the center
of the low moves through. The main concern during this time is
precipitation amounts in the region around the Colorado River. Rain
rates of around 0.2 inches per hour may be possible under the
strongest bands. Although daily totals may reach 0.5 inch in some
areas, the steady long duration nature of this rainfall as seen over
the last two days may reduce the flooding threat. That said,
advisories for minor flooding and ponding may become necessary in
some locations.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.

Large scale ridge will build across the Western US through Saturday,
resulting in a sharp warming trend through the week along with a
return to dry conditions. Temperatures Wednesday will top out within
a few degrees of seasonal normals, but will climb several degrees
each day, and top out roughly 10-15 degrees above normal by Friday
and Saturday. There remains about a ten percent chance of reaching
100 in Las Vegas on Friday, and about 25 percent chance on Saturday.
If we do reach 100 it would be the earliest 100 since 2020.  In
lower elevations such as the Colorado River Valley and Death Valley,
a return to triple digit temps is a virtual certainty.

Sunday onward, a trough will begin to develop off the coast of the
PacNW and may slowly creep inland next week. There is a fair amount
of uncertainty in how deep this trough will be and how quickly it
will shift inland. As such, confidence is fairly low in the details
but a slight cooling trend may begin as early as Sunday along with a
return of at least breezy conditions Sunday into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Discounting any potential convection-related wind shifts, wind
direction will be diurnal, with speeds generally below 6 kts. The
persistent rain coupled with cooling temperatures and very light
winds will result in the potential for brief vicinity fog in the Las
Vegas Valley this evening. Light rain and BKN-OVC aoa 1 kft will
continue until around 09Z before cloud cover thins out and bases
increase to aoa 6 kft. Slight chance (20-30 percent) of fog around
the valley early Tuesday around sunrise, but not confident enough to
put into the prevailing TAF. Vicinity showers return to the valley
around 19Z on Tuesday, with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms
that would result in erratic, gusty winds between 20 and 30 kts from
their direction. As the afternoon progresses, thunderstorm chances
will wane, but light shower activity will continue through the
evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Generally light and
diurnal winds expected in the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River
Valley through the TAF period, discounting any convection-related
wind shifts. KBIH will gust from the north-northwest this evening
before gusts fall off tonight, with gusts returning between 25 and
30 kts Tuesday morning. Breezy west winds continue at KDAG overnight
before lightening Tuesday morning. Light rain showers will continue
in Las Vegas through around 09Z, with brief instances of vicinity
fog likely, due to the light wind and cooler temperatures.
Precipitation clears out of the region overnight, with increasing
cloud bases. Due to the light winds, there is a slight chance (20-30
percent) of fog around the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River
Valley Tuesday around sunrise, but not confident enough to put into
the prevailing TAF. Vicinity showers return to the Vegas Valley and
CRV sites Tuesday afternoon with a 30 percent chance of
thunderstorms that would result in erratic, gusty winds between 20
and 30 kts from their direction. As the afternoon progresses,
thunderstorm chances wane, with light shower activity continuing
through the evening.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Soulat

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